Dangote Supplies 71% of Nigeria’s Petrol. What Is the Backup Plan?

• Dangote supplied 71% of August petrol receipts, reported regulatory figures show.

• Imports continued, providing a second source of supply.

• Refinery stocks alone cannot establish Nigeria’s emergency cover.

• Replacement fuel would need financing, shipping and delivery to stations.

September 24, () – Nigeria’s retreat from imported petrol has left one refinery supplying roughly seven out of every ten litres received into its fuel system.

That raises a practical question for motorists and businesses who benefit from reliable local production but would bear the cost of an interruption. How quickly could replacement fuel reach them?

Dangote supplied approximately 35.87 million litres daily in August, accounting for 71% of petrol receipts, according to NMDPRA figures reported by Punch on September 24. These are supply figures, rather than motorists’ purchases.

There is no verified evidence of an impending shutdown. The concern is how the system would cope with maintenance, equipment failure or another disruption at its largest supplier.

Imports Remain Part of the Backup

Nigeria still imported an average of 14.6 million litres of petrol daily in August, down from 19.7 million in July. Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries recorded no production that month, according to Nairametrics’ account of the same factsheet.

Existing imports therefore provide an alternative source, but their August volume does not demonstrate how quickly suppliers could expand deliveries.

Replacing lost production involves more than finding petrol for sale.

Marketers need financing, cargoes, shipping arrangements and facilities to receive the product. Fuel must then move from coastal storage to filling stations.

A planned maintenance period allows suppliers to arrange deliveries beforehand.

An unexpected stoppage gives them less time, making accessible stocks and prearranged supply contracts more important.

Even if production stops temporarily, the refinery may continue supplying petrol from storage.

How long those deliveries could last would depend on the amount available and how quickly production resumes.

A refinery might continue dispatching stored petrol while a processing unit undergoes repairs. The consequences depend on which operations stop, for how long and how much finished fuel remains available.

A Stock Figure Cannot Give the Whole Answer

Dangote’s closing petrol stock stood at 360.4 million litres at the end of August. That figure cannot be treated as Nigeria’s emergency reserve or used alone to calculate how many days the country could manage without production.

It covers one location at one point in time. Establishing national protection would require current stocks across refineries, depots and other facilities, their ownership, existing commitments and the speed at which they could reach customers.

The underlying August factsheet was not independently retrieved for this report. Available reporting also does not establish a verified nationwide replacement timetable.

Nigeria can reduce imports while keeping the ability to obtain emergency supplies. For households and businesses, the useful evidence would be usable stocks by region, arrangements for replacement cargoes and realistic delivery times.

A national total offers little reassurance to a town whose filling stations cannot obtain the fuel.