A Poor Pre-election Verdict Ahead of 2027 Poll

August 23, () — After a four-day visit to Nigeria, the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Election Observation Mission verdict on inter-party preparations for the 2027 general poll is dire. Members of the group were in Nigeria between August 11 and 15, 2026, observed the polls in Ekiti and Osun and visited some political parties and civil society groups. They issued a report at the weekend.

According to the delegation, co-led by IRI President Daniel Twining and Ambassador Jendayi Frazer, a board member of the National Endowment for Democracy, NED, and former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Nigeria retains important foundations for democratic competition, including an established electoral institution and a multi-party system but political consolidation by the governing All Progressives Congress, APC, opposition fragmentation, election-related violence, monetised political competition and declining public trust are weakening the foundations built for democratic competition, established electoral institutions, an active civil society and a multi-party system.

“Economic hardship, insecurity, and declining confidence in political institutions pose significant challenges to holding elections in an environment conducive to meaningful democratic participation. This includes terrorist attacks by Islamic militants, violence targeting Christian communities, intercommunal conflict targeting both Christians and Muslims, and broader ethnic tensions that have contributed to persistent insecurity across parts of the country,” the group said in its interim report that followed participation in the off-cycle polls in Ekiti and Osun States.

Arguing that election preparations have remained on track, supported by legal reforms that strengthen key elements of voter accreditation and results transmission, it highlighted, “unresolved legal ambiguities, candidate disputes, compressed timelines, and persistent concerns about results transmission and collation remain significant challenges. Security institutions have pledged political neutrality, but concerns persist about politically motivated arrests, selective enforcement, and the perceived use of state security institutions for partisan advantage.”

It further said public confidence remains “one of the most consequential challenges facing the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Grievances over the management of the 2023 presidential election continue to shape perceptions of INEC, while uncertainty about the implementation of new electoral provisions may deepen distrust. In a closely contested election, credibility will depend not only on sound technical administration but also on the transparent and consistent application of procedures, clear and timely public communication, and broad public confidence that the

During their visit to the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Abuja, Jenai Cox, African Regional Director of IRI, said, “IRI is here conducting a pre-election assessment mission. Our objective of this mission is to assess the preparations for the 2027 general election that will take place.”

National Chairman of the party, David Mark, said Nigerians must be allowed to choose their leaders freely, without violence, intimidation, manipulation or the abuse of state institutions.

“Elections should not be treated as war or a do-or-die affair. They should be a democratic process through which citizens freely choose their leaders and advance their aspirations for development and a better quality of life,” Mark said, adding that, “For us in the ADC, the credibility of the 2027 elections must be non-negotiable. We expect the electoral process.”

According to Mark, IRI’s engagement with political parties, civil society organisations and other stakeholders ahead of the 2027 general elections was a welcome idea. He said the ADC was prepared to share its experiences and conclusions.

In an address to the delegation during a courtesy visit, the National leader of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, Seriake Dickson, during a meeting with a joint delegation from the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI), called for the exposure and sanction of those he described as “terrorists masquerading as politicians” ahead of the 2027 general election. Dickson, a former Bayelsa State governor and serving senator representing Bayelsa West, said such politicians should be exposed, sanctioned, and treated in the same manner as terrorists.

He made the call in a post on his verified X account late Tuesday after meeting a joint delegation of the International Republican Institute, IRI, and the National Democratic Institute, NDI.

IRI and NDI recommendations on INEC, Security, Voters, and campaigns were equally robust. They recommended that: INEC should issue supplementary guidance defining “communication failure” and establishing a uniform procedure for documenting and resolving electronic results transmission failures. INEC should clarify the procedures governing its authority to review declarations and returns under Section 65, including the grounds for review and standards for decision-making.INEC should conduct a more robust stress test of its systems and mock elections to troubleshoot potential challenges with the BVAS and IReV.

INEC should communicate operational decisions, procedural changes, and contingency measures through consistent and authoritative channels. INEC and polling security personnel should take measures to protect ballot secrecy on Election Day and observers, reducing opportunities for voter intimidation and vote-buying. On security, IRI urged INEC and security agencies to prioritize the security of election facilities that protect participants, materials, party agents, and observer groups without restricting lawful access. They said particular attention should be given to preventing intimidation and securing the movement of results at collation centers.

ICCES should use existing threat assessments to identify areas where violence or insecurity could suppress participation or disrupt election administration.

On election violence, IRI urged political parties to hold party officials, agents, and supporters accountable for vote-buying and voter inducement. National and state leadership should communicate clear expectations throughout party structures and ensure they are enforced down to local and polling-unit levels, including sanctions, fines, and prosecution of civil and criminal offenses.

It urged INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and security services to prosecute voter inducement and initiate investigations into credible allegations of vote buying.

Security and law-enforcement agencies were called upon to strengthen the prevention, investigation, and prosecution of election-related violence and voter inducement throughout the pre-election period. Political parties should train and supervise their party agents on lawful conduct, ballot secrecy, and results verification

Political leaders and parties were tasked to refrain from rhetoric that threatens opponents, incites violence, or portrays electoral defeat as inherently illegitimate. It urged INEC and civil society to intensify targeted voter education in areas with low participation or high levels of distrust and insecurity. Outreach should focus on practical voting information, ballot secrecy, and voter rights rather than general appeals to participate.