POLITICS
Ganduje Says North Won’t Deliver Victory to Atiku, Peter Obi, Gives Crucial Reason
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The former APC National Chairman says Northern Nigeria remains the deciding force in presidential elections and insists the region will not deliver enough votes to Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
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According to Ganduje, neither Atiku nor Obi has built the extensive political machinery and grassroots networks needed to secure widespread support across the Northern states despite ongoing coalition efforts.
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Ganduje urges the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to tighten the criteria for registering political parties, arguing that only parties with clear ideologies, functional structures, and nationwide presence should be recognised.
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Although Ganduje insists the opposition lacks the strength to win the North, the 2023 presidential election produced varied outcomes across the region, highlighting the complexity of Northern voting patterns.
July 20, () — The immediate past National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Umar Abdullahi Ganduje, has declared that Northern Nigeria will not deliver enough votes to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, to defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.
He insisted that both opposition figures lack the grassroots political structures required to mount a successful challenge.
Speaking at a public event in Kano, Ganduje described the North as the most strategic region in Nigeria’s electoral Politics, maintaining that no presidential candidate can win the country’s highest office without commanding substantial support across the region.
He argued that although opposition parties have intensified consultations and coalition talks ahead of the January 16, 2027, presidential election, neither Atiku nor Obi has built the political networks capable of translating those alliances into electoral victory.
“The North is strategic in every presidential election in Nigeria. With due respect to our friends in the opposition, neither Peter Obi nor Atiku Abubakar can mobilise sufficient support in this region to defeat President Tinubu in 2027,” Ganduje said.
The former Kano State governor maintained that the North has consistently played a decisive role in determining Nigeria’s presidents and would once again shape the outcome of the 2027 election.
According to him, electoral victories are secured through sustained grassroots mobilisation rather than elite political agreements or last-minute alliances.
He said neither Atiku nor Obi currently possesses the widespread political structures needed to make significant electoral gains across the Northern states.
Ganduje stressed that while opposition parties are free to forge alliances, such arrangements would have little impact without strong party organisations at the ward, local government, and state levels.
The former APC national chairman also expressed concern over the growing number of political parties in the country, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to strengthen the requirements for party registration.
He said only political parties with functional organisational structures, clearly defined ideologies, and a broad national spread should be allowed to participate in elections.
According to him, reducing the number of inactive or poorly organised political parties would strengthen Nigeria’s democratic system and improve the quality of electoral competition.
“Stricter registration standards will strengthen our democracy by ensuring that only viable political parties participate in elections,” he added.
Opposition Coalition Gathers Momentum
Ganduje’s remarks come amid increasing political consultations and coalition efforts by opposition leaders seeking to build a united front against President Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general election.
Atiku Abubakar is the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Peter Obi is the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Both politicians are expected to intensify campaigns across the country as preparations for the election gather momentum.
Despite the opposition’s renewed efforts, Ganduje maintained that without a formidable grassroots presence in Northern Nigeria, neither Atiku nor Obi stands a realistic chance of defeating President Tinubu at the polls.
2023 Election Results Paint a More Complex Picture
While Ganduje maintains that Northern Nigeria will not deliver victory to Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2027, the outcome of the 2023 presidential election offers a more nuanced picture of the region’s voting pattern.
President Tinubu of the APC won the February 25, 2023, presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 per cent of the total valid votes cast. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) came second with 6,984,520 votes (29.07 per cent), while Peter Obi of the Labour Party secured 6,101,533 votes (25.40 per cent).
assessment however revealed that in the ,North, Atiku emerged as the dominant candidate in the North-East, winning Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states.
Tinubu, however, won the North-Central, securing Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and Nasarawa, and also led overall in the North-West, where he won Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, and Zamfara. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, won Kano State, underscoring the influence of regional political forces.
Nationally, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi each won 12 states, with Obi also emerging victorious in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), while Kwankwaso won only Kano State.
The results underscored the complexity of Nigeria’s electoral landscape, showing that while the North remains critical to presidential elections, voting patterns vary across its geopolitical zones and are influenced by local political dynamics, party structures, and candidate appeal.
Against that backdrop, Ganduje’s remarks represent his political assessment of the evolving 2027 presidential race, coming amid intensified consultations and coalition-building efforts by opposition parties seeking to challenge President Tinubu’s re-election bid.
