Local Refineries Supply 79% of Nigeria’s Petrol in H1 as Imports Slump

• Local refineries supplied 78.6 percent of Nigeria’s petrol demand in the first half of 2026, up from 38.9 percent in 2025, while imports dropped to 21.4 percent, according to MEMAN.

• The report said expanded refining capacity led by Dangote Refinery, alongside Waltersmith and OPAC, has reshaped Nigeria’s downstream market, although crude supply constraints affected output later in the period.

• MEMAN said imports will remain necessary to complement domestic refining, maintain competition and strengthen Nigeria’s long-term energy security despite growing local production.

August 3, () — Nigeria’s domestic refining industry supplied 78.6 percent of the country’s petrol requirements in the first half of 2026, more than doubling its contribution from 38.9 percent recorded in 2025, as imports fell sharply, according to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN).

In its Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report, MEMAN described the shift as a major structural transition from an import-dependent fuel market to one increasingly supported by local refining capacity.

The report showed petrol imports declined to 21.4 percent in H1 2026 from 61.1 percent in 2025.

Diesel followed a similar trend, with domestic supply rising to 68 percent from 35.6 percent last year, while imports dropped to 32 percent from 64.4 percent.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), however, recorded a slight decline in local supply to 86.9 percent from 89.1 percent, with imports rising marginally to 12.1 percent.

Local refining reshapes fuel market

MEMAN attributed the improvement to the continued expansion of domestic refining capacity.

“Domestic refining became the primary source of Nigeria’s gasoline and diesel supply during H1 2026, reflecting the continued expansion of local refining capacity,” the report stated.

It added that imports of petrol and diesel reduced significantly due to lower import licences and disruptions in global trade.

The association noted that Nigeria also emerged as a stronger aviation fuel supplier during the Middle East conflict, with international markets increasingly sourcing Jet A-1 from the Dangote Refinery.

Among key milestones, MEMAN said Dangote Refinery operated above its nameplate capacity in May 2026, Waltersmith Refinery doubled its capacity from 5,000 barrels per day to 10,000 barrels per day in April, while OPAC Refinery resumed operations in June with naphtha production.

Industry analysts said Dangote Refinery accounted for more than 81 percent of Nigeria’s petrol supply earlier in the year, although crude supply constraints affected production later in the period.

A representation of a fuel depot. Photo credit: Emiliana Serbatoi.
Strategic stocks cushioned supply shocks
According to the report, excess petrol stocks built in November and December 2025 created a 30.8-day stock sufficiency buffer by January 2026.

That inventory, MEMAN said, helped cushion February’s supply deficit of 17.4 million litres per day, preventing widespread fuel shortages and queues.

It added that imports have increasingly become a balancing mechanism, helping marketers bridge temporary supply gaps arising from refinery maintenance and logistics challenges.

The report also stated that domestic diesel production strengthened significantly during the second quarter, with local refineries supplying virtually all diesel consumed in the market by May and June.

Competition, energy security remain priorities
Looking ahead, MEMAN said the focus in the second half of the year would shift from simply increasing refining output to building a competitive, transparent and resilient downstream petroleum market.

The report said the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), under its new Chief Executive, Rabiu Abdullahi Umar, is expected to strengthen market competition, improve transparency and advance plans for a National Strategic Stock framework.

While Dangote Refinery has repeatedly argued that fuel imports should stop whenever local supply is sufficient, MEMAN maintained that imports would continue to play a complementary role in preserving competition, supporting strategic reserves and preventing supply disruptions.

It stressed that long-term energy security should not depend on a single refinery, regardless of its size, but on a diversified supply framework combining domestic refining, complementary imports and adequate strategic petroleum reserves