Adeleke’s Re-election Sparks Debate Over Tinubu’s Chances in Osun State

August 17, () — As campaigns for the 2027 general election kick-off on the Wednesday, August 19, 2026, official date, the just concluded governorship poll in Osun State has provided pundits and politicians with a template to analyse and debate President Bola Tinubu’s chances of winning re-election in his Southwest geo-political zone.

The governorship contest in Osun State was a straight fight between the candidate of the President’s All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Oyebamiji and Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party. With Ademola’s victory, Osun State joins Oyo, governed by Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement, APM, as two opposition states in the Southwest zone, leaving four out of the six states in the zone in the hands of the  APC. The APC governed states are Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun and Ondo.

Governor Adeleke was declared winner of the Saturday, August 15, 2026 governorship election by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC on Sunday morning.

He secured 511,067 votes to defeat his closest rival and candidate of the governing APC, Oyebamiji, who polled 444,815 in a keenly contest poll that was preceded by violence, which claimed about 40 lives, a controversial, last minute, lock down of the state government’s salary account by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, and then, the intimidating presence of the leadership of the National Assembly and 19 APC state governors in Osun on election day.

Prior to the poll, Adeleke who had claimed unjust attacks and pressure by the Federal Government through alleged antics of the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a former governor of the state, wondered aloud, saying, “Mr President, we have endorsed you for the 2027 poll, what do you want from us again.?”

Upon Adeleke’s victory, congratulatory messages have continued to pour in for him. A particular one that reminded the re-elected governor of his “agreement,” with the President, has sparked a debate on the value of political promissory notes for the 2027 poll.

Mr Festus Keyamo, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development made the reminder in his congratulatory message to Governor Adeleke.

Keyamo, while congratulating Adeleke on his re-election, wrote on his X handle: “Agreement is agreement. Thank you, Governor Ademola Adeleke, for the public and unequivocal endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu @officialABAT for the 2027 Presidential Election. You are a man of integrity and honour. ‘Agreement is agreement,”

The comment immediately generated reactions online, with some interpreting it as an indication of a private political arrangement between Adeleke and Tinubu for the 2027 election.

In a swift reaction, Adeleke’s Imole Campaign Council  dismissed suggestions that the governor’s support for President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid was based on a political agreement.

According to the Council, Governor Adeleke’s endorsement of Tinubu was driven by the President’s performance and reforms, rather than any pre-arranged political deal.

Pelumi Olajengbesi, spokesperson for the Council, shared the group’s reaction on his X handle on Sunday He said the Minister’s remark should recognise the significance of the mandate given to Adeleke by Osun voters in the August 15 governorship election.

“Do not undermine the resilience of the Osun people. There is no agreement,” he said, adding that, “Our support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, @officialABAT, is based on his performance and reforms that have strengthened states economically. Osun people voted @AAdeleke_01. President Tinubu simply ensured democratic rules were respected,” he said.

Other contributors to the debate include Senator Orji Kalu, former Senate Chief Whip and Presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Atiku Abubakar.

According to Kalu, President Bola Tinubu’s prospects in Osun State remain “very bright” ahead of the 2027 general election.

He said the election result should not be interpreted as a setback for Tinubu.

“I also sympathise with the APC leadership, our party’s governorship candidate and all our supporters over the outcome of the election,” he said, adding, “What happened in Osun is democracy in play. Elections are about the choice of the people and as a party, we should be able to come back stronger,” he said.

Tinubu Congratulates Adeleke, Says Victory Shows Democracy Will Continue to Thrive in Nigeria

INEC Declares Adeleke Winner of Osun Governorship Election, Secures Second Term

For Atiku Abubakar, the Osun election is a forerunner of the 2027 general poll.

He said, “The outcome of last Saturday’s governorship election in Osun State is an expression of the wishes of the people, which has earned Governor Adeleke his re-election. The lesson from the election is that the voters in Osun State have set a good example of how we must come out in large numbers in next year’s general election.

“Another important lesson from the Osun election is that it is a clear manifestation of how the collective resolve of the electorate to stand firm to protect their ballot is the best antidote to rigging, vote buying and other electoral malpractices and irregularities,” Atiku said.

He added that in spite of the “orchestrated plot to intimidate voters with the heavy presence of armed personnel, the outcome of the election reveals how unpopular the All Progressives Congress (APC) has become because of the failed policies of the Tinubu-led APC administration.

“Nigerians have roundly rejected the APC. The election in Osun State is just a telling indication that the APC will be defeated in the general election in January 2027. Indeed, it is a forerunner of the 2027 general election.

recalls that as the last off-cycle election before every general election since 2014, the Osun governorship poll has always mirrored the expectations, rivalry and calculations of local and national politicians.

Expectedly, it underlines the interests of two formidable presidential candidates in the upcoming presidential poll on January 16, 2027: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the ADC.

In fact, Abubakar played up the rivalry between the duo during the last -minute campaign for the APC governorship candidate, Najeem Salaam.

“My fellow Osun citizens, this is the fourth time I am standing on this podium, and each time I stood here, you gave me your votes. I cannot forget that. The reason I cannot forget that, you know, is because your daughter is in my house”, Atiku said, referring to his wife, Titi Abubakar, who hails from Osun State.

The former Vice President recalled that he had previously campaigned in the state for Governor Ademola Adeleke before returning to seek votes for his own presidential ambition.

“I came here for the current governor. I pleaded with you to support him and you voted for him. I came here for my presidential campaign, you voted for me and I defeated Bola Ahmed Tinubu in this state.”

True. Abubakar has been fishing successfully in Tinubu’s Southwest backyard in previous elections.

As presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 poll, Abubakar defeated Tinubu, polling 353,860 votes to Tinubu’s 342, 941 votes. Atiku’s first wife, Mrs. Titi Abubakar, is from Osun State. Adeleke, as PDP governor, pulled his weight behind Atiku, the PDP presidential candidate. In fact, in the 2019 election when he ran against President Muhammadu Buhari, Abubakar almost drew the ballot with the incumbent APC presidential candidate. He polled 337,377 votes to Buhari’s 347,674 votes.

Their   rivalry is expected to intensify in the state and keep it in a permanent state of tension until the January poll.

Still, re-elected Adeleke, whose defection from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to the APC was rebuffed because he was considered, “to have no electoral value,” even after seeking the help of President Tinubu, appears poised to become a ‘beautiful bride’ regarding the 2027 poll in his state.