Nigeria’s Reform Paradox: Growth Rises, Reserves Climb, Yet 63% Live in Poverty — IMF

June 17, () — Nigeria’s sweeping economic reforms have delivered stronger growth, lower inflation, and improved external reserves, but millions of Nigerians continue to grapple with worsening hardship, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its latest Article IV Consultation Report, the IMF said poverty has risen to 63 percent of the population, while an estimated 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025 despite significant improvements in key economic indicators.

The Fund noted that reforms implemented over the past three years have strengthened macroeconomic stability and improved investor confidence.

Nigeria’s economy grew by an estimated 4 percent in 2025 and is projected to expand by 4.1 percent in 2026, driven by agriculture, real estate, information and communication technology, and the oil and gas sector.

The country’s external position also improved considerably. Gross international reserves increased to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion at the end of 2024 and are projected to rise further to $58.1 billion in 2026.

The current account surplus stood at 4.8 percent of GDP in 2025, supported by stronger oil and gas exports and reduced fuel imports as domestic refining capacity expanded.

Inflation, which had been on a steady decline for more than a year, fell to 15.1 percent in February 2026 before edging up to 15.4 percent in March as higher global fuel and food prices filtered into the domestic economy.

The IMF expects inflationary pressures to persist in the short term, projecting inflation to end 2026 at 17 percent.

Despite the improved macroeconomic outlook, the Fund warned that economic gains have yet to translate into meaningful relief for many households. Rising food, transport, and energy costs continue to erode purchasing power, leaving millions vulnerable to poverty and hunger.

The IMF urged Nigerian authorities to maintain tight monetary policy, sustain exchange-rate reforms, and accelerate structural reforms in electricity, infrastructure, agriculture, and human capital development.

It also called for stronger social protection measures, including expanded cash transfers, to shield vulnerable households from the impact of economic adjustments.

While acknowledging the progress made in restoring stability, the Fund stressed that ensuring the benefits of reform reach ordinary Nigerians remains one of the country’s most pressing economic challenges.