Subsidy: Nigerians Cannot Pay Twice – Atiku Tears Into Tinubu, Unveils Plan To Cap, Track Every Barrel

• Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has unveiled a new petroleum subsidy model that would shift government support from imported fuel to crude supplied to qualifying Nigerian refineries.

• Under the proposed Atiku Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) 2027, subsidy would be capped, appropriated in the federal budget and independently audited, with refineries required to demonstrate that cheaper crude translates into cheaper petroleum products for Nigerian consumers.

• Atiku also challenged President Bola Tinubu to explain petroleum-related expenses recorded after the May 2023 declaration that fuel subsidy had been removed, as well as what he described as about N30 trillion in Federation revenues, deductions, savings, transfers and related funds requiring reconciliation.

• The ADC candidate said his proposed intervention would have a statutory sunset, with support progressively reduced as domestic refining capacity, efficiency and competition improve, until Nigeria no longer needs petroleum subsidy.

August 20, () — Former Vice President and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, has unveiled a proposed petroleum subsidy framework that would shift government intervention from imported fuel to domestic refining, while placing a firm ceiling on public expenditure and requiring every subsidised barrel to be tracked.

A statement issued on Thursday by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, said the proposal formed part of Atiku Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) 2027.

Atiku argued that the debate should no longer be framed simply as a choice between subsidy and no subsidy, but around whether any intervention is transparent, affordable and capable of delivering measurable benefits to Nigerians.

“My proposal is not to resurrect the old subsidy regime. We will move subsidy from importation to production, from middlemen to Nigerian refineries, and from unverifiable claims to verifiable barrels”, he said.

Under the proposed arrangement, qualifying public and private refineries would receive Nigerian crude at a preferential price, subject to production, efficiency, transparency and domestic supply requirements.

Atiku acknowledged that supplying crude below its market-equivalent value would impose an opportunity cost on the Federation, but said his administration would openly account for that cost.

“The cost will be known. The ceiling will be known. The beneficiaries will be known. And, most importantly, the benefit delivered to Nigerians will be measurable. We will determine what Nigeria can afford before we subsidise. We will not subsidise first and discover the bill afterwards”, he said.

No Cheap Crude Without Cheaper Products

Atiku said the proposed scheme would prevent refinery owners from benefiting from preferential crude prices without passing the benefit to consumers.

According to him, no refinery would qualify for subsidised crude without independently verified evidence of the required quantity of petroleum products being supplied to the Nigerian market under a transparent pricing formula.

The system, he said, would reconcile crude allocations, refinery intake, production yields, inventories and domestic deliveries, making it possible to track every subsidised barrel from allocation through refining to the final consumer.

“No phantom cargoes. No fictitious imports. No unverifiable under-recoveries. No retrospective claims”, Atiku said.

He warned that any refinery receiving subsidised Nigerian crude would be required to refine it locally and supply the agreed products to Nigerians while passing on the benefit of the intervention.

“Otherwise, you do not qualify”, he said.

Atiku also promised that the scheme would operate on rules rather than political discretion, with eligibility open to all qualifying public and private refineries.

Allocation, he said, would be determined by independently verified refining capacity, efficiency, domestic supply and compliance.

The former Vice President further proposed safeguards against arbitrage, saying subsidised crude and petroleum products benefiting from the intervention could not be diverted to foreign markets for higher profits while Nigerian taxpayers bear the cost.

Operators found diverting subsidised crude or products, manipulating production records, violating domestic supply obligations or failing to pass the prescribed benefit to consumers would lose eligibility, refund the subsidy benefit and face regulatory and legal sanctions.

“Nigeria will not subsidise anybody’s private profit. Public support must produce a measurable public benefit”, he said.

The ADC candidate said his proposed model would operate within a predetermined annual fiscal ceiling approved by the National Assembly, thereby ending what he described as open-ended subsidy liabilities.

“No refinery gets unlimited support. No marketer brings government a surprise bill. No agency manufactures an under-recovery after the transaction”, he noted.

Atiku said the National Assembly would know the appropriation, Nigerians would know the maximum government exposure, while independent auditors would verify the crude and production figures.

He also proposed that any additional oil revenue above the budget benchmark could only be deployed within the established fiscal ceiling and through legally appropriated processes.

According to him, the programme would also disclose the opportunity cost and impact of the intervention on revenues accruing to the Federal, state and local governments.

Atiku said the subsidy would not be permanent, insisting that it would contain statutory sunset and periodic review provisions.

As domestic refining capacity increases, utilisation improves, competition grows, and production costs fall, he said, support per barrel would be progressively reduced.

“Our objective is not permanent subsidy. It is to use temporary and disciplined support to build a refining industry strong enough eventually not to need subsidy”, Atiku stated.

He argued that lower fuel and diesel costs would reduce transportation and logistics expenses, support farmers and manufacturers, moderate inflation and improve household purchasing power.

Atiku, however, used the announcement to launch a fresh attack on President Bola Tinubu’s handling of fuel subsidy removal. He recalled that Tinubu, during his inauguration on May 29, 2023, declared that “subsidy is gone”, after which petrol prices rose sharply, and Nigerians faced higher transportation and living costs.

The former Vice President questioned whether petroleum-related costs subsequently recorded by the government amounted to subsidy-like interventions despite the official declaration that subsidy had ended.

Citing NNPCL audited financial statements, which, according to him, recorded about ₦4.84 trillion in Energy Security Expenses in 2023 and ₦7.13 trillion in 2024, Atiku demanded an explanation of the economic substance of the expenses and whether they included under-recoveries, pricing differentials, or other petroleum supply-related costs.

“We are not interested in playing games with accounting terminology. If government continued absorbing differences between the economic cost of petroleum products and what was recovered from the market, then Nigerians are entitled to ask how that differs economically from the subsidy they were told had disappeared. You cannot abolish subsidy at Eagle Square and allow subsidy-like costs to resurface in government accounts without explaining the contradiction”, he said.

Atiku said Nigerians should not be made to bear the burden of subsidy removal through higher pump prices while Federation resources simultaneously carry petroleum-related expenses that remain insufficiently explained.

“Nigerians cannot pay for subsidy removal twice — through punishing pump prices and through unexplained subsidy-like costs against their commonwealth”, he said.

‘Where Is The ₦30trn?’

The former Vice President also widened his attack to the management of Federation revenues, alleging that about ₦30 trillion in revenues, deductions, savings, transfers and related funds required transparent reconciliation.

He was, however, careful to state that he was not alleging that the ₦30 trillion represented fuel subsidy or had been stolen.

“We are not saying ₦30 trillion is fuel subsidy or that ₦30 trillion has been proven stolen. We are saying that approximately ₦30 trillion reflected across Federation revenues, deductions, savings, transfers and related classifications requires a complete, month-by-month public reconciliation”, he clarified.

Atiku challenged the Tinubu administration to provide answers on both the management of petroleum-related costs following subsidy removal and the funds requiring reconciliation.

“Publish every deduction. Identify every beneficiary. Show every transfer. Show every balance. Show the legal authority. If the money is properly accounted for, open the books and end the argument”, he challenged.

Atiku also promised that previous subsidy transactions would be subjected to lawful scrutiny under his proposed administration, with anyone found through due process to have fraudulently obtained or diverted public funds facing prosecution and asset recovery.

He said the difference between his proposal and the current approach was that his administration would define the intervention before implementation, establish a spending ceiling, appropriate the funds, track crude allocations, verify production, guarantee consumer benefits and publish the accounts.

“Target it. Cap it. Budget it. Track it. Audit it. Make Nigerians feel the benefit. Reduce it as domestic production grows. And ultimately, end the need for it altogether”, Atiku said.