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FG Proposes Mandatory Impact Tests to Curb Policy Reversals
FG Proposes Mandatory Impact Tests to Curb Policy Reversals
Government proposes evidence-based assessments for major tax, tariff, and regulatory changes to reduce policy uncertainty.
A proposed annual National Economic Scorecard would track real wages, productive job creation and poverty.
The draft economic framework will undergo public consultation before consideration by the Federal Executive Council and National Economic Council.
October 26, () – The Federal Government has proposed mandatory impact assessments for major tax, tariff and regulatory changes, seeking to curb abrupt policy reversals that increase business costs, discourage investment and weaken economic planning.
The proposal is contained in a draft Nigerian Economic Policy Framework unveiled by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, at the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja on Monday.
Under the proposed framework, major economic interventions would have to demonstrate the problem they are designed to solve, the evidence supporting them, who stands to benefit, who bears the cost, and the conditions under which the measures should end.
The framework seeks to establish a more consistent basis for economic policymaking, particularly where changes in tariffs, taxes, incentives or regulations affect businesses’ investment decisions.
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“Policy uncertainty is an invisible tax on enterprise. And unlike most taxes, it generates no revenue for governments. It only destroys value and discourages investment,” Oyedele said.
He argued that reforms could lose their intended benefits when subsequent government decisions undermine earlier measures, adding that unpredictable policies make it harder for businesses to plan, expand and create jobs.
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Policy changes to face evidence tests
The proposed impact assessments would cover major interventions, including tax adjustments, tariff changes, regulatory restrictions and incentives.
Before implementation, policymakers would be expected to identify the problem a measure addresses, provide evidence for the proposed intervention, assess its costs and benefits, and specify when it should be reviewed or withdrawn.
The framework also seeks to prevent industrial policies from becoming permanent protection for inefficient businesses.
Oyedele said tariffs should give local industries room to develop rather than shield them indefinitely from competition. The approach suggests that government support for domestic production should be assessed against its effectiveness rather than maintained without clear conditions.
The minister also called for stronger coordination across government institutions, arguing that businesses face the combined effects of decisions made by different ministries and agencies.
The draft identifies seven interconnected priorities: stability, productivity, enterprise, capital, people, markets and institutions. These are underpinned by three principles: private enterprise as the engine of growth, open and competitive markets, and coordination across government.
Unlike a conventional development plan centred on projects and spending commitments, the proposed framework is intended to guide how economic decisions are made and how their outcomes are evaluated.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele
Annual scorecard to track jobs, wages and poverty
The government has also proposed an annual National Economic Scorecard to assess whether economic growth is translating into improved living standards.
The scorecard would track real wages, productive job creation and poverty, moving the assessment of economic performance beyond headline gross domestic product growth.
Under the proposal, the scorecard would be published on or before October 1 each year.
“What gets publicly measured cannot be quietly ignored,” Oyedele said.
He said indicators such as rising incomes, graduates securing productive employment, higher farm yields and small businesses expanding without excessive regulatory burdens would provide a clearer picture of economic progress.
The proposed scorecard would make these outcomes central to public assessment of economic policy, although its effectiveness would depend on the quality of the data, the consistency of reporting and whether the findings lead to changes in government decisions.
The framework comes as Nigeria faces pressure to generate employment for a growing workforce. Oyedele said more than 3.5 million young Nigerians enter the labour market annually, underscoring the need for private-sector investment and productivity growth.
Framework awaits consultation and approval
The draft is open to public scrutiny through 17 core questions available on the Ministry of Finance’s website. Following consultation and validation, it is expected to proceed to the Federal Executive Council for approval and the National Economic Council for endorsement.
Oyedele urged business leaders and other stakeholders to contribute to the process, arguing that a durable economic direction should reflect national consensus rather than the priorities of a single administration.
The proposal seeks to address a longstanding concern among businesses: the difficulty of making long-term investment decisions when government policies can change abruptly or conflict across agencies.
However, the impact-assessment requirement and annual scorecard remain proposals at this stage. Their practical effect will depend on the final framework, how assessments are enforced, whether government agencies comply and whether successive administrations sustain the approach.
The summit, themed “Growth That Works: Delivering Jobs, Productivity and Shared Prosperity,” brought together government officials, business leaders, investors and development partners to discuss how economic growth can generate jobs and improve living standards.
Oyedele said Nigeria’s long-term prospects would depend on making sound economic decisions and sustaining them across political cycles, rather than repeatedly replacing existing policies with new approaches.
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