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WMO Warns 2027 Could Break Global Temperature Record As El Niño Strengthens
WMO Warns 2027 Could Break Global Temperature Record As El Niño Strengthens
The WMO expects the developing El Niño to become the strongest on record by December, with its greatest warming effects likely in 2027.
Global temperatures in 2026 are expected to rank among the four highest on record, with January to September averaging 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels.
Nigeria faces potential risks to hydropower generation and vulnerable communities as extreme weather conditions intensify.
November 9, () – The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that 2027 could become another record-breaking year for global temperatures as a developing El Niño intensifies warming and raises the risk of extreme weather.
The warning was contained in the WMO’s State of the Climate Update 2026, released on Monday, November 9, as world leaders gathered in Antalya, Türkiye, for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31.
It expects the event to become the strongest on record by December, with its greatest warming effects in 2027.
El Niño Raises Prospect Of New Temperature Record
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The WMO said 2026 is expected to rank among the four warmest years on record, with the global average surface temperature between January and September reaching about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.
It said the past 12 years have each been the warmest on record, with 2023 to 2026 accounting for the four warmest years.
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The current record was set in 2024, when global average temperature reached 1.55°C above the pre-industrial level. This was followed by 2023 at 1.46°C and 2025 at 1.43°C.
A representation of El Niño Photo credit Intel Region
According to the WMO, El Niño typically increases annual global average temperatures by between 0.1°C and 0.2°C. Its strongest influence is often felt in the year after it develops.
“This is why 2024 was the warmest year on record, and why we should therefore prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027”, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.
She explained that El Niño releases heat stored in the oceans, adding to the warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
“El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release”, Saulo stated.
WMO Urges Stronger Climate Preparedness
It called for stronger forecasts and early warning systems.
It said the number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged world leaders to accelerate climate action through emissions reductions and increased support for countries vulnerable to climate impacts.
“We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”, Guterres said.
Nigeria Faces Risks To Power And Communities
The developing El Niño has implications for Nigeria, where changing rainfall patterns and extreme weather can affect electricity generation, infrastructure and vulnerable communities.
In June 2026, Nairametrics reported that a BMI report had warned that El Niño-induced drought could reduce hydropower generation across West Africa, exposing Nigeria to electricity supply risks. Previous El Niño events had reportedly reduced Nigeria’s hydropower utilisation by nearly 25 per cent.
Reduced water availability at hydropower facilities could put additional pressure on electricity supply. Flooding also remains a major climate-related concern, with heavy rainfall capable of damaging homes, roads, farms and other infrastructure.
The WMO’s warning underscores the importance of climate monitoring and early warning systems to help Nigerian authorities, businesses and communities prepare for extreme weather.
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