Tinubu’s Offshore Tax Order Targets $50bn Investment, 1mbpd Production Boost – NUPRC

• Tinubu’s offshore tax incentives could unlock $50bn in investments and push Nigeria’s oil output up by nearly 1mbpd.

• Nine deep offshore projects are lined up for FIDs, with $10bn Bonga South expected to lead the new production wave in 2027.

• NUPRC says the offshore investment drive could boost oil revenues while positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for marine and logistics services.

August 20, () — President Bola Tinubu’s new tax incentives for deep offshore oil and gas projects could unlock about $50 billion in fresh investments and increase Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production by almost one million barrels per day within the next four to five years, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has said.

The Executive Commissioner for Development and Production at the NUPRC, Enorense Amadasu, disclosed this during an interview on NTA, where he represented the Commission Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan.

According to a statement issued by the NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, Amadasu said the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order 2026 could accelerate investment decisions on major projects that have already secured regulatory approvals.

“The Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order 2026 recently signed by President Bola Tinubu has the potential not only to unlock $50bn in investments but can also create an additional one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from deep offshore fields,” he said.

Nine Offshore Projects Await Final Investment Decisions

The executive order is designed to improve the economics of deep offshore developments by providing tax incentives and a more predictable fiscal framework for investors.

Amadasu said nine projects currently have approved Field Development Plans, meaning the projects have passed a major regulatory hurdle and are now expected to move towards Final Investment Decisions before development can begin.

“So, where will these volumes be coming from? Nine of these projects have approved FDPs, so the next step expected is the FID in the near to midterm. The $10bn Bonga South will come in 2027, and within the next four to five years, we are expecting almost an additional one million barrels per day,” he said.

The projected increase would be significant for Nigeria, which currently produces about 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, according to Amadasu.

Deep offshore fields currently account for about 24 percent of Nigeria’s oil production and 19 percent of its gas output.

$10bn Bonga South Leads Expected Investment Wave

Among the projects expected to benefit from the improved investment environment is the $10 billion Bonga South development, which Amadasu said is expected to come on stream in 2027.

He said the government’s objective is to encourage international oil companies and other investors to move from regulatory approvals to FIDs and ultimately into actual project development.

“We are on the right path, all thanks to Mr President. It will be a huge leap. As of today, we have mined over 4.6 billion barrels from deep offshore assets. In cargo terms, that is about 5,000 tankers,” Amadasu said.

Offshore Push Could Boost Marine, Logistics Sectors

Beyond crude production and investment, the NUPRC expects the projects to generate wider economic opportunities, particularly in marine services, logistics, technology and skills development.

Amadasu said Nigeria would need to expand its marine and logistics capacity to support the expected increase in offshore activities.

“It aims to make Nigeria the regional hub for deep offshore projects,” he said.

The Commission also expects the projects to support reserves growth, technology and skills transfer, as well as job creation.

The new incentives form part of the Tinubu administration’s broader efforts to improve the competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector and reverse years of underinvestment in major upstream developments.

For Nigeria, the key test will now be whether the fiscal incentives can convert the nine approved development plans into FIDs, construction activity and, ultimately, new production.

If the projects progress as projected, the country could attract tens of billions of dollars in fresh capital while adding nearly one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to national output over the next four to five years.