Dangote Offers East African Countries 30 Percent Stake in Planned Kenya Refinery

• Aliko Dangote has offered East African countries a combined 30 percent equity stake in his planned refinery in Lamu, Kenya.

• Kenya is considering a 10 percent stake worth about $500 million, while Ethiopia and Rwanda have also expressed interest.

• The refinery, estimated at $16bn, is expected to serve Kenya and other East African markets, strengthening regional energy security.

August 21, () — Aliko Dangote has offered East African countries a combined 30 percent equity stake in his planned refinery in Kenya, potentially giving regional investors access to about $1.5 billion of the project.

Kenyan President William Ruto’s economic adviser, David Ndii, disclosed this on Thursday at a capital markets forum in Nairobi.

Ndii said Kenya was considering a 10 percent stake in the refinery, valued at approximately $500 million, while Ethiopia and Rwanda had also expressed interest in participating.

“The total for the region is about $1.5 billion,” Ndii said, adding that Dangote was prepared to support participating countries if they were unable to commit as crude or product off-takers.

Kenya Leads Regional Participation

The planned refinery is expected to be developed in Lamu, on Kenya’s coast, after the project was initially proposed for Tanga in Tanzania.

Dangote has said the decision to move the project to Kenya was based on commercial and technical considerations.

The proposed facility is expected to have a processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, making it larger by nameplate capacity than Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lagos.

The Lamu location also provides access to a deep-water port and the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport corridor, potentially positioning the refinery to serve a wider regional market.

The proposed 30 percent regional equity participation would allow East African countries to hold direct interests in a major energy infrastructure project while potentially securing greater access to locally refined petroleum products.

Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda have so far been identified as interested participants, although the final allocation of the proposed stake has not been disclosed.

Refinery Cost Revised

The project was initially estimated at $17 billion, but Dangote has subsequently indicated that the cost could come down to between $15.5 billion and $16 billion.

The reduction has been linked partly to lessons from the construction of the Lagos refinery and efforts to reduce financing and construction costs.

The refinery is expected to be financed through a combination of equity and debt, with equity accounting for 30 percent and debt making up the remaining 70 percent.

Construction is expected to begin after a planned groundbreaking in October 2026, with the facility targeted for completion within about four years.

The project would represent a major expansion of Dangote’s refining operations beyond Nigeria and into East Africa.

The refinery is expected to supply Kenya and neighbouring markets, including Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan and Ethiopia.

For the participating countries, the project could help reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products, improve regional fuel security and strengthen supply reliability.

For Dangote, bringing regional governments and institutional investors into the project could help broaden the ownership base, mobilise long-term capital and create stronger commercial relationships with the markets the refinery is expected to serve.

The proposed investment therefore positions the Lamu refinery as a regional energy project rather than an infrastructure development targeted solely at the Kenyan market.