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2027 Presidency: Online Poll Projects Peter Obi Ahead in 20 States, Tinubu 9, Atiku 7
2027 Presidency: Online Poll Projects Peter Obi Ahead in 20 States, Tinubu 9, Atiku 7
An online poll by Parallel Facts projecting the possible outcome of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election has placed NDC’s Peter Obi ahead in 20 states, while incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is projected to win nine states.
The projection also gives former Vice President and ADC Presidential Candidate Atiku Abubakar seven states, while Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde is projected to carry one state.
According to the poll, the emerging political contest could produce significant shifts across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, with several states classified as potential swing territories and others projected as narrow contests.
The poll uses three categories to indicate the strength of the projected outcomes: green for landslide victories, yellow for potential swing states and blue for slim wins.
North West: Obi, Atiku and Tinubu Face Tight Contest:-
The North West projection gives Obi three states, Tinubu one and Atiku three.
Kano is projected as a landslide for Obi, with the poll associating the contest with a possible Obi-Kwankwaso alignment.
Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Jigawa are classified as potential swing states, while Zamfara is also projected as a swing contest. The figures point to a highly competitive North West, traditionally regarded as one of the most influential blocs in determining Nigeria’s presidential elections.
North East: Atiku Leads Projection:-
In the North East, Atiku is projected to dominate with four states, while Tinubu and Obi are each projected to take one.
Adamawa and Bauchi are listed as potential swing states in Atiku’s favour, while Borno is projected toward Tinubu. Gombe, Taraba and Yobe are classified as slim-win territories. The projection therefore places the North East as a major battleground, particularly given the region’s importance to Atiku’s political base and Tinubu’s governing coalition.
North Central: Obi Gains Ground:-
The North Central projection gives Obi four states and Tinubu three.
Obi is projected ahead in Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau, as well as the Federal Capital Territory, with Plateau and the FCT classified as landslide territories.
Tinubu is projected to win Kogi, Kwara and Niger, although the three states are marked as potential swing contests. The projection suggests that the North Central could become another crucial zone in the 2027 contest, with both major political camps facing competitive races.
South West: Tinubu Maintains Stronghold:-
The South West projection gives Tinubu four states, Obi one and Seyi Makinde one.
Tinubu is projected to record landslide victories in Ekiti and Ogun, with Ondo also projected in his favour. Osun is classified as a potential swing state.
Lagos, despite being Tinubu’s political stronghold, is projected toward Obi in the poll but classified as a potential swing state.
Oyo is the only state projected for Makinde, with the poll categorising the race as a potential contest involving Makinde and Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq.
South East: Obi Sweeps All Five States:-
The South East records the most decisive regional projection in favour of Obi.
The poll projects Obi to win all five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, with each state classified as a landslide.
The projection therefore gives Obi a clean sweep of the entire South East, reflecting the region’s strong support for his political movement.
South South: Obi Projected Across All Six States:-
The South South also produces a complete sweep for Obi, according to the online projection.
Obi is projected to win Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.
Bayelsa, Delta and Edo are classified as landslide victories, while Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Rivers are projected as slim wins.
Overall Projection:-
The online poll’s final tally puts the four leading projected winners as follows:
Peter Obi — 20 states
Bola Tinubu — 9 states
Atiku Abubakar — 7 states
Seyi Makinde — 1 state
The projection covers 37 states, including the Federal Capital Territory, based on the poll’s interpretation of the constitutional position on presidential election calculations.
Poll Highlights Three Major Factors:-
The projection identifies several factors it considers important to the 2027 political contest. It points to Atiku Abubakar’s political challenges, including the lack of a strong party structure and internal disputes surrounding his political platform. It also argues that President Bola Tinubu could face significant resistance in parts of the core North, potentially affecting his ability to retain the level of northern support that would be required for victory.
The poll further identifies Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as commanding two of the largest grassroots political movements in the country, suggesting that their influence could become a major factor in determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential race.
However, the figures remain an online poll projection and not an official election forecast or result. With the 2027 election still ahead, political alliances, party structures, voter preferences, candidate selection and developments in 
the various regions could significantly alter the current projections.
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